In early November, India agreed to send four Mi-25 attack helicopters to Afghanistan. They will be equipped with machine guns, rockets, and grenade launchers, and transferred from Russia — the country where the aircraft were manufactured (Russia’s deputy prime minister was said to have given Moscow’s formal approval of the transfer during a visit to New Delhi on December 8). According to Indian media reports, the helicopters should be delivered to Afghanistan within the next few weeks.
I’ve read something like this…oh right, back in 2014, on the AAF, I said:
One possible alternative source for the aircraft is India. The Indian government is keenly interested in supporting Afghanistan financially as well as militarily and expanding its influence in the country. Karzai’s recent requests for military hardware have been denied, as India is hesitant to provide lethal weapons. (According to this article, Karzai asked for “150 battle tanks, field guns, howitzers and one squadron of attack helicopters.”) India has instead focused on non-lethal equipment like transport aircraft and training. But there is nothing stopping a possible future deal brokered by the Americans (who, if the Bilateral Security Agreement is signed, would pay for the order) for the distribution to the AAF by the Indian government of Mi-17s bought from Russia or other helicopters. Even if the Americans were unwilling to see US cash change hands for aircraft bought in Russia, there is nothing to deter India from providing them as part of future defence support packages.
One bit that the WOTR piece misses is the US/Indian defense spending relationship.
There is a healthy defence spending relationship between the Indian and US governments. Since 2009, India has placed orders for eight billion dollars worth of equipment from American defence contractors (the willingness of India to provide hardware to the Afghans is also visible in the upcoming delivery of two Indian-made Cheetah light transport helicopters as reported here. This is a scenario that would work well for all parties: the United States would be able to fulfil its obligation to secure Afghanistan; the Indians – who are also very familiar with the Mi-17, as there are currently 168 of them in the Indian military inventory – would gain even more leverage with both Kabul and Washington; and the Afghans would receive a sustainable source of security support.
And no, Islamabad will likely not be amused.
There would remain the problematic issue of how all of this would be viewed by Islamabad, as the Pakistani government is keenly interested in reducing Indian influence in Kabul. This could put further strain on the US-Pakistani relationship, but for the long-term benefit of Afghanistan, the Americans will likely decide to continue to pursue this course of action.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’ve got a horn to play.
Like the blog, and want more? Then check out the Weather Report, a weekday rollup of all the Afghan hot takes and headlines you’ll ever need. Be like all the cool kids: subscribe today to the best Afghan newsletter around.
And never miss a blog update: get new stuff in your email whenever it posts.